@Article{StaalFlAgBoFeTu:2020:FeDrDe,
               author = "Staal, Arie and Flores, Bernardo M. and Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra de 
                         and Bosmans, Joyce H. C. and Fetzer, Ingo and Tuinenburg, Obbe A 
                         .",
          affiliation = "{Stockholm University} and {Universidade Estadual de Campinas 
                         (UNICAMP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Radboud University} and {Stockholm University} and {Utrecht 
                         University}",
                title = "Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon",
              journal = "Environmental Research Letters",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "15",
               number = "4",
                pages = "e044024",
                month = "apr.",
             keywords = "land use change, remote sensing, moisture recycling, fire, 
                         modeling, forest clearing, agriculture.",
             abstract = "Deforestation and drought are among the greatest environmental 
                         pressures on the Amazon rainforest, possibly destabilizing the 
                         forest-climate system. Deforestation in the Amazon reduces 
                         rainfall regionally, while this deforestation itself has been 
                         reported to be facilitated by droughts. Here we quantify the 
                         interactions between drought and deforestation spatially across 
                         the Amazon during the early 21st century. First, we relate 
                         observed fluctuations in deforestation rates to dry-season 
                         intensity; second, we determine the effect of conversion of forest 
                         to cropland on evapotranspiration; and third, we simulate the 
                         subsequent downwind reductions in rainfall due to decreased 
                         atmospheric water input. We find large variability in the response 
                         of deforestation to dry-season intensity, with a significant but 
                         small average increase in deforestation rates with a more intense 
                         dry season: with every mm of water deficit, deforestation tends to 
                         increase by 0.13% per year. Deforestation, in turn, has caused an 
                         estimated 4% of the recent observed drying, with the south-western 
                         part of the Amazon being most strongly affected. Combining both 
                         effects, we quantify a reinforcing drought-deforestation feedback 
                         that is currently small, but becomes gradually stronger with 
                         cumulative deforestation. Our results suggest that global climate 
                         change, not deforestation, is the main driver of recent drying in 
                         the Amazon. However, a feedback between drought and deforestation 
                         implies that increases in either of them will impede efforts to 
                         curb both.",
                  doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ab738e",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab738e",
                 issn = "1748-9326",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "Staal_feedback.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}